Mobile thin clients.
He predicts that the shift is bound to happen as voice traffic gets wrapped in the communication logic that is bound to get implemented in the coming years.
Beyong the obvious issues of network management that he does get into, there's the whole problem of, you know, fitness for a particular purpose. And beyond the fact that mobile voice/video devices will always need some kind of internal codec logic, there's a good bit of thinking to be done about computational versus network: I'm reminded of it everytime I see satnav software struggling to re-optimize a route on an anemic smartphone/converged device. At the root of the issue the speed/latency/energy-expenditure compromise that needs to be decided upon on a per-application basis.
Why can't my desktop provide RPC services to my smartphones?
Other aspects:
- Application control: Network ops and service providers would probably love the mobile thin client paradign, allowing them to control what the users can run, and at what price, but the customers will push for the thick, all-you-can-eat computational buffet that they've gotten used to on the desktop. Desktop appliances didn't fail without reason.
- And if your telco ever smells the fresh application-provider meat, it'll never accept to be reduced to a dumb-pipe provider, at all, ever.
- The usual worry about DRM, software renewability, and the ability to run your apps on hardware you own. The latest TiVo debacle shone light on that issue already, and the TiVo appliances are not that thin yet.
- Location-dependant prices for location-independent services. While I'd love to have my smartphone to be sync'ed to a web service automatically, I don't think I'd like being charged extra for my calendering apps when roaming abroad.

